What AI Thinks About Gold Today – August 6, 2025

This is a technical analysis of XAUUSD based on the H1, H4, and D1 charts as of 15:00 (GMT+3) on August 6, incorporating fundamental factors to provide an outlook for the next 24 hours.

▶ Common Technical Overview

  • Price Action: After a strong bullish recovery, XAUUSD shows signs of short-term correction across H1, H4, and D1.
  • Bollinger Bands: H1 and H4 show price slipping below the mid-band, while D1 remains near the upper band with a bearish candle forming.
  • Moving Averages:
    • H1: Bearish crossover (5MA < 20MA < 50MA).
    • H4: Price testing 50MA; 100MA may act as deeper support.
    • D1: Uptrend still intact above 50MA and 100MA, but momentum slowing.
  • MACD: Bearish crossover on H1; momentum weakening on H4; D1 remains bullish but flattening.
  • RSI: H1: 39 (weak), H4: 53 (neutral), D1: 52 (neutral).
  • Stochastics: H1: oversold (20s), H4: downward cross in neutral zone, D1: overbought and turning down.
  • ATR: Volatility gradually contracting on H1; D1 still elevated.

◆ H1 – Short-Term (1-Hour Chart)

  • Moving Averages: Bearish crossover developing; price below all key MAs.
  • RSI: Around 39, indicating bearish pressure.
  • MACD: Bearish crossover below the zero line.
  • Stochastics: In the oversold zone, with possible pause in selling.
  • Bollinger Bands: Price testing lower band, downward momentum.
  • Pivot Point: Trading below the daily pivot (PP 3372), support at S1 (3358) being tested.
  • 🔍 Outlook → Potential short-term rebound, but bearish tone remains unless PP is reclaimed.

◆ H4 – Mid-Term (4-Hour Chart)

  • Moving Averages: 5MA has turned down; price between 50MA and 100MA.
  • RSI: At 53 – neutral zone.
  • MACD: Bullish crossover intact but weakening.
  • Stochastics: Near 29, turning lower.
  • Bollinger Bands: Price approaching mid-band; range-bound behavior.
  • Pivot Point: Testing S1 (3352), potential support zone.
  • 🔍 Outlook → Short-term pullback in progress. Break below 3350 may trigger further downside toward 3320.

◆ D1 – Long-Term (Daily Chart)

  • Moving Averages: Price above 50MA and 100MA, uptrend intact.
  • RSI: Neutral at 52.
  • MACD: Bullish above zero, but histogram shows declining momentum.
  • Stochastics: Overbought (85), signaling possible correction.
  • Bollinger Bands: Price rejected at upper band with a bearish candle.
  • Pivot Point: Reversal from R1 zone after prior rally.
  • 🔍 Outlook → Uptrend remains, but overbought conditions suggest risk of a technical pullback.

🌍 Fundamental Factors

  • Key Market Drivers:
    • Upcoming U.S. data: ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed speeches
    • Bond yields and interest rate expectations
    • Geopolitical risks and global macro themes (China/US economy)

🔍 Overall Outlook (Next 24 Hours)

  • Momentum is shifting toward consolidation or short-term correction after recent rallies.
  • H1 and H4 indicate downward pressure, but oversold stochastics may trigger a temporary bounce.
  • As long as the 3350–3340 support zone holds, deeper correction may be limited.
  • On D1, the bullish trend remains intact unless the price closes below 3330.

🎯 Trading Strategy (Intraday)

🔻 Sell on Rebounds (Bearish Scenario)

  • Entry Zone: 3368–3372 (pivot + MA cluster)
  • Targets: 3352 (S1), 3340
  • Stop-Loss: Above 3380

🔺 Buy on Dips (Bullish Scenario)

  • Entry Zone: 3348–3352 (support & ATR zone)
  • Targets: 3370–3380
  • Stop-Loss: Below 3335

Posted by Penguin